Polymarket is at risk of being banned in France: understand
In addition to Donald Trump's victory, the Polymarket prediction platform was the highlight of the United States elections, as it predicted the results of the election. However, this spotlight will likely cause the platform to be blocked in France, according to the country's betting regulator ANJ.
This possibility arises due to the success of the platform in terms of betting. The ANJ states that Polymarket handled billions of dollars and could distribute up to US$450 million. It was the highest amount paid in bets in the platform's history – and caught the attention of French authorities.
Absence of license
According to the French regulator, the reason for the ban is that betting platforms need a license from the ANJ to operate in France. Polymarket, due to its decentralized nature, does not have this license, which could lead to a ban.
As it does not have an ANJ license, Polymarket cannot offer services to French citizens. However, the ANJ states that at least two users from France will receive millionaire sums. One of them, called “Theo”, placed a $26 million bet on Trump's victory and won $49 million, profiting $23 million on the operation.
This big bet made Polymarket popular, but French authorities also kept an eye on it due to the platform's growth in the country. The ANJ alleged that Polymarket is involved in gambling that is permitted in France only by licensed operators.
According to local media, the regulator has the power to ban access to unlicensed gambling sites. Therefore, the expectation is that they will block the platform. “Polymarket is just betting on something completely uncertain, which is exactly what gambling is,” said an ANJ source.
Polymarket 1×0 searches
During the presidential campaign, most conventional polls pointed to a closer race, with several giving Kamala Harris the victory. On the other hand, Polymarket followed the opposite trend and gave more than a 65% chance of victory for Trump.
At the beginning of November, Polymarket faced accusations of manipulating results. But the result of the vote showed that the platforms were closer to getting the result right.
If the ANJ does indeed ban Polymarket, French users would not be able to use the site normally. The only way out in this case would be to resort to using a VPN. ANJ could also attempt to influence media outlets and directories to stop advertising or linking to Polymarket and thus further limit its audience.