Analyst points out 3 facts that could make Solana fall more than 10%
Solana (SOL), one of the main cryptocurrencies on the market, could face a sharp drop of more than 10%, according to recent technical and on-chain data.
The price of SOL, which had been recovering slightly after a significant drop at the beginning of the week, may be preparing for a new correction. Three key factors indicate this possible drop and could lead the asset to further devaluation in the coming weeks.
During the month of September, the Solana network saw a significant drop in the number of active and new addresses. According to data from CoinGecko, the number of active addresses on the network has decreased. This indicates that the interest of market participants is weakening.
While activity on the Solana blockchain is still above the 2024 average, this recent drop suggests a reduction in usage and possibly demand for the cryptocurrency. This metric is an early indicator of devaluation, as fewer active users could mean fewer transactions and less interest in holding or acquiring the asset.
Solana Price Analysis
Another worrying sign for Solana is the drop in Open Interest (OI), which represents the total number of open contracts in the options and futures market. According to data from Coinglass, Solana's OI dropped nearly 20% between September 30th and October 4th.
This decrease reflects a likely capital outflow from the cryptocurrency, which suggests a reduction in demand among traders and investors. Such a sharp drop in Open Interest is usually a sign that market participants are becoming disinterested in the asset, which could put further downward pressure on the price.
From a technical point of view, Solana price charts suggest the possibility of a further correction. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, used to measure the strength and direction of a trend, points to negative momentum in the SOL price in different time periods.
Additionally, Solana has been hovering in a price range between $163 and $120 since August. Currently, the asset is close to $140. However, if the selling pressure continues, the price could fall to the $120 support. This would be a loss of almost 15% compared to the current value.
If Solana price fails to sustain above this critical support level, it could even revisit $110, a low reached in August. However, if SOL closes one day above the 200-day moving average, located around US$144, the negative scenario could be invalidated. Thus, the price could rise to the $150 to $155 range.