Airdrops record a success rate of just 11% in 2024
In 2024, token airdrops continued to be a popular practice in the cryptocurrency market, but with increasingly disappointing results.
A recent survey, conducted by Keyrock, revealed that only 11% of airdrops launched this year were successful. The study analyzed 62 airdrops across six blockchain chains and showed that only eight of them offered positive returns to investors. All of these airdrops occurred on the Ethereum and Solana networks, leaving blockchains like ZkSync, Arbitrum, Blast, and Starknet with no success stories.
The research highlighted that while airdrops attract the community by offering free tokens, most face rapid sales shortly after launch.
In fact, 88% of distributed tokens dropped significantly within a few months, even when they started with promising starting prices.
A common pattern observed was the drop in the value of tokens in the first 15 days after the airdrop, a reflection of the massive liquidation carried out by users seeking quick profits.
Failed airdrops
According to the report, airdrops that distributed more than 10% of the token's total supply outperformed over the long term. On the other hand, those who distributed less than 5% experienced faster liquidations and price drops shortly after launch. The survey indicated that the majority of participants only seek immediate financial incentives, without commitment to the project in the long term.
The dynamics of token distribution proved to be a key factor in determining the success or failure of airdrops. Projects that offered larger quantities of tokens, according to Keyrock, were able to reduce initial selling pressure, keeping their prices more stable over time.
However, even these most successful airdrops still faced significant volatility in the days following launch.
Another relevant point was the impact of the community on the performance of airdrops. The research showed that projects with greater community involvement, especially on platforms such as Discord and Telegram, presented better results. When communities feel engaged and part of a project, the tendency is for longer-lasting support, which contributes to the appreciation of the token in the long term.
The study also highlighted that tokens with inflated fully diluted valuation (FDV) faced large price drops after launch. A high FDV indicates an excess supply of tokens compared to available liquidity, which causes abrupt drops.
Among the 62 airdrops analyzed, the projects with the highest FDV were those that suffered the greatest devaluations, while those with a more restrained valuation, such as Drift (launched with US$56 million), obtained better results.